Sat, Dec 14, 2019
Considering its land mass Canada is seriously under populated. As a result its geopolitical and economic influence is limited. Initiatives it increase Canada's population to one hundred million people by the end to the twenty first century have come and gone. But the melting Arctic Ocean and the resultant economic opportunities and challenges have moved it back into the forefront of domestic politics.
Sun, Feb 23, 2020
Expectations are that sea level rise will inundate large tracts of coastal communities in northern Europe within the next few decades. A potential method to mitigate the damage is to build mega dams between Scotland and Norway and between England and France. While the cost of this project is daunting it is less costly than the alternative of abandoning the coastal areas.
Mon, Mar 16, 2020
General Mark Miley reported that the US Millitary is concerned about and planning for climate change. The military anticipates climate induced disruption of operations occurring simultaneously with international crises. Admiral William Francis Moran testified that naval bases by necessity are built along sea coasts making them vulnerable to flooding from sea level rise.
Mon, Mar 23, 2020
Appalled by the prospect of hegemony by a reinvigorated Russia, twelve nations in Central Europe are forging an alliance reminiscent of the Intermarium. They are considering a plethora of infrastructure mega projects to foster international trade between the group and reducing reliance on Russia. The United States and German have offered to bankroll much of the effort. Of course Russia and other countries that fear the effects of the relationship are posing resistance.
Fri, May 8, 2020
Geopolitics is the global mechanism of deciding who has access to what resources and who decides. The founding student of geopolitics, Halford Mackinder, defined the Post-Columbian epoch following the period of European colonization noting that the entire world is now nationalized. So one nation's gain involves another's loss and will likely result in conflict.
Sat, May 9, 2020
During the European recessions in the early twenty-first century Portugal was forced by the European Union to impose austerity measures on its economy. This wake-up call lead Portugal to prepare the Mar Portugal Plan to regain more autonomy. Under the plan Portugal will claim its 'extended continental shelf' as its exclusive economic zone as is its right under international law. The claim will extend Portugal from the Iberian peninsula to the Mid-Atlantic rift making it one of the largest countries in the world, 97 percent of it ocean.
Thu, May 14, 2020
A nuclear armed Middle East is a looming nightmare. The temptation to become a nuclear armed nation in the region is high as such a nation could exercise a much more belligerent foreign policy. Fortunately, becoming a nuclear armed nation is not easy. It is costly, it risks economic retaliation and isolation and Isreal will go to great lengths to prevent it. And it is not an advantage that will last for long as other nations will acquire the same capability as rapidly as possible,
Mon, Aug 3, 2020
Besides the two Aukland Islands New Zealand is comprised of numerous far flung islands that give the country the ninth largest maritime zone in the world. Seafloor mapping over the past ten years has uncovered that it also has a much larger continental shelf than was previously known. This discovery may have political importance as Austrlia, New Zealand, France and the United states strive to contain China's ambitions in the western Pacific.
Tue, Aug 18, 2020
The stalemate over Kosovo independence with Serbia softened in 2018 with the proposal of a land swap that would return a largely Serbian region of Kosovo to Serbia in exchange for a region largely populated by Albanians. This raised alarm bells with those familiar with the Balkans because their are many separatists movement and ethnic enclaves that could rise to the occasion with their own demands.
Tue, Oct 6, 2020
Mercenary armies such as the French Foreign Legion have a long history. But they came to the fore during the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq where some fifty percent of military personnel were private contracts and fifteen per cent of them were active combatants. Today (year 2020) large combat units are openly used by many countries such as Iran and Turkey as well as the super powers. Here's why and where they are deployed.
Sun, Oct 25, 2020
Following the breakup of the Soviet union the odd distribution of the Serb and Ajeri people in the Nagorno-Karabakh region lead to territorial disputes and Serbia invaded and took possession of the region driving out 750,000 Ajeri. There is a framework for a treaty that would return thinks to 'normal'. But after 27 years no agreement has been reached and Serbia was acting to annex the region. By 2020 Serbia had managed to offend the local superpowers, Russia, Iran and Turkey so Ajerbajan has undertaken military action to retake the territory.
Thu, Dec 17, 2020
In Arab countries public opinion is firmly against reconciliation with Israel yet animosity between Isreal and several Arab governments, notably Saudi Arabia, is easing. There are three major factors at play. Saudi Arabia's rival, Iran, has become more active on the international stage. Multilateral relationships and Pan-Arabism have faded in favor or bilateral relations. Two new mega projects important to Sudi Arabia involve Isreal; the Tracks for Regional Peace railway project and the new city of NEOM.
Tue, Feb 16, 2021
The Eurpean Union is by far Africa's largest training partner. Bilateral trade between the two regions continues to increase with the construction and expansion of transportation hubs along the North African trade corridors and the manufacturing base throughout the continent. The growth has not gone without notice and Asian superpowers are also expanding their economic relationships with Africa.
Fri, Apr 2, 2021
The People's Republic of China desperately wants control of Taiwan. But the Hong Kong protests and other incidents have made Taiwan even more independent minded. So the Chinese Communists are turning aggressive. Beijing is probably incapable of an extremely risky and bloody amphibious invasion of Taiwan. So it has engaged in psychological warfare to make Taiwan feel isolated.
Thu, Apr 22, 2021
Centered in the European Plain Ukraine is a desirable region to control as a buffer to foreign invasion. Its position divides the country politically with the west leaning to the West and the east leaning toward Russia to the point of being separatist. In April 2021 a new round of military mobilization is underway near the Dombas region in Russia. With the popularity of both the Russian and Ukrainean leaders at an all time low here are Putin's options.
Thu, Apr 29, 2021
The 2004 Tsunami brought together an improvised coalition of Australia, India, Japan and the United States to provide humanitarian aid. This prompted Shinzo Abe, prime minister of Japan, to propose the Quadrilateral Security Dialog but it quickly fell apart. But in response to China's more aggressive corrosion it has be re-invigorated with the goal of containing China.
Fri, May 14, 2021
Was the flare up in the conflict between Isreal and Hamas during Ramadan 2021 a spontaneous reaction to a pilgrimage getting out of control? More likely it was a deliberate action by Hamas to appear strong on the eve of up coming Palestinian elections when it hopes to wrest control of the West Bank form Fatah.
Thu, Jun 3, 2021
Since the end of its days as a major empire Spain has been politically insular participating only reluctantly in NATO and the EU. In a radical change Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez announced a policy of engagement with Africa since it is already intertwined with Africa's prospects. In particular the policy invites African students to study in Spanish Universities, encourages Spanish companies to establish offices and factories in Africa, funding to support infrastructure projects and even military protection of trade routes to fight piracy.
Tue, Jul 13, 2021
When central Asia belonged to the Soviet Union convoluted borders were created to deliberately induce resource disputes that could only be settled by Moscow. Post Soviet Union the borders are still in place and still lead to conflicts as the countries exert their Independence. And still, as mediator, Moscow exerts control.
Mon, Jul 19, 2021
Moscow has used vast tracks territory as security for centuries. Even today it's vast western territories surrounded by geographic barriers give it secure northern, eastern and southwestern boarders. But in the east the European plane is wide open to potential invaders as is the Central Asian steppe. The Soviet Union was much easier to defend when it controlled these areas. So Russian is seeking to bring them back under its control.
Mon, Sep 13, 2021
The emergence of Morocco and Algeria from colonial French and Spanish control over fifty years ago lead to extreme tension between the two countries that continues to today (2021). Initiated by border and territorial disputes Morrocco turned to the United States and Algeria to the Soviet Union and began an arms race that neither can afford.
Tue, Sep 21, 2021
China's Belt and Road Initiative is not just providing economic expansion, for China. China is also using it to isolate and encircle India. India, of course is not sitting still for this situation. It is working to use China's own strategy to expand international relations and commerce. The four new corridors described here look very good on paper but are proving to be challenging.
Mon, Oct 18, 2021
If coastal China was a country it would be one of the wealthiest and advanced countries in the world. But China also retains a vast interior as a strategic military buffer that is poor and undeveloped. And that is where communism comes into play. The autocratic Chinese Communist Party has sufficient authority to redistribute wealth to the interior to maintain a decent standard of living there.
Thu, Nov 11, 2021
The Dayton Accords established peace in Bosnia but left it with an awkward government that was only held together by the European Union operated Office of the High Representative. When the United States suddenly pulled out of this office the Europeans were caught of guard and separatists, notably, Milorad Dodik, saw an opportunity for succession.
Sat, Dec 11, 2021
Nine countries sit atop the Arabian Nubian Shield, a mineral rich rock formation that is the likely worth trillions of dollars in mining revenue. But this is a conflict ridden region controlled by terrorist states and autocratic governments that oppress their inhabitants. But that shows hints of moderation in exchange for the buried wealth.
Thu, Dec 23, 2021
Although one hundred nations recognize Kosovo's independence, Serbia, which claims it, backed by Russia and China do not. That has prompted Kosovo with an ethnic Albanian majority to seek unification with Albania. But since this is the Baltics where calling it complicated is a great understatement.
Sun, Jan 9, 2022
While Sweden has traditionally maintained a position of neutrality in Europen conflicts, Russian aggression at the down of the 21st century has tilted Sweden toward NATO. This is a tremendous blow to Russia as it would leave the Baltic Sea dominated by Western allies on this crucial trade route to Nothern Europe and strategic route to the open ocean.
Mon, Mar 7, 2022
Russia and most of the world expected a quick conquest of Ukraine. Two weeks into the conflict Russia still has a long way to go. Shirvan attributes the slow Russian progress to a Russian battle plan for a low cost campaign in terms of resources and civilian casualties. But that could change.
Sat, Jul 30, 2022
To challenge China's growing international influence the Biden administration is rebuilding two major international cooperation agreements crushed by Donald Trump. One is a coalition or South Asia-Pacific nations. The other is a G7 initiative similar to China's Belt and Road initiative.